Articles written by Nikolas Gvosdev
By Nikolas Gvosdev
12 Mar 2010 |
World Politics Review
If the period of time between 1991 and 2011 represents a
two-decade interregnum, it's worth examining the opportunities the United States has had during that time to fundamentally shape the
global order that emerged after the end of the Cold War, and why each
attempt hasn't "taken." The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 may have opened another such window of opportunity, but it won't last long.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
05 Mar 2010 |
World Politics Review
The
National Intelligence Council's report, "Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed," states as a "relative certainty" that the rise of China, India and other regional powers will result in the emergence of a multipolar global order. This is the future everyone expects, but in order to determine how to shape that future, we need to answer a fundamental question: What
sort of multipolar world do we want?
By Nikolas Gvosdev
26 Feb 2010 |
World Politics Review
Hopes of bringing about a new round of punitive sanctions on
Iran received a serious setback on Thursday, when Russia appeared to throw
cold water on the Obama administration's efforts to that effect. Unless the administration is willing to treat a nuclear Iran as an existential threat to American
security, it must now prepare to expend the political and diplomatic capital necessary to confront and contain it.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
19 Feb 2010 |
World Politics Review
Pundits and politicians alike have been making a number of predictions
of late about Iran's future trajectory. To the extent that the scenarios
they are outlining serve to justify the policy options they propose and
endorse, it may be useful to step back and examine the logic that
guides them. Because no policy can be successful if the assumptions that drive it are based on intellectual quicksand.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
12 Feb 2010 |
World Politics Review
We have no line item for "bribery" in the foreign operations budget bill, and increasingly, the best card we had in the past -- the promise of
free trade agreements -- now faces the reality of a hostile Congress. Certainly payments to secure support for U.S. policy are not a long-term solution, but they are a
necessary tool of statecraft -- especially in getting solutions in the
short term.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
05 Feb 2010 |
World Politics Review
The likelihood of further U.N. sanctions against Iran was greatly diminished earlier this week, when Tehran signaled that it is now open to some form of the compromise fuel swap scheme proposed last October. But if U.N. sanctions are not forthcoming and unilateral U.S. sanctions will not bring
sufficient pressure to bear on Tehran, what should the Obama
administration's next move be?
By Nikolas Gvosdev
29 Jan 2010 |
World Politics Review
President Barack Obama is under increasing public pressure to alter his strategy on Iran. Many feel the U.S. should abandon the diplomatic approach toward Tehran in favor of encouraging its collapse -- or at least its fundamental modification -- at the hands of the Green Movement. But gambling on the shelf-life of another government as a foreign policy strategy can be a risky proposition.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
22 Jan 2010 |
World Politics Review
Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution was portrayed as an
apocalyptic clash between a bright
future with the West and a return to the country's post-Soviet embrace of Russia.
Gallons of ink have been spilled over the last six years explaining why closer
integration into the Euro-Atlantic world ultimately failed. But there hasn't been much soul-searching in Western capitals over their own responsibility.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
15 Jan 2010 |
World Politics Review
The U.S. government -- and political establishment -- has a tendency to dart from crisis to crisis, pouring time, treasure and
resources into responding to the headlines of the day. But while crises suck up all of the policy
oxygen, no one is laying the foundations for a reinvigorated, long-term
relationship with the nations in America's own neighborhood.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
08 Jan 2010 |
World Politics Review
A year ago, Christian Brose penned a provocative article entitled "George W. Obama," in which he asserted that "Obama ran against a caricature of
Bush's first term" during the 2008 election, rather than the Bush foreign
policy of the second term. Moreover, of the latter, he predicted that Obama would
"largely continue it." In large
measure, Brose has turned out to be right.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
01 Jan 2010 |
World Politics Review
During the holiday season, pundits traditionally pen their "end of
year" assessments of a presidential administration. But instead of "grading" the performance of the
president and his team over the past year, I'd rather take a look at
the environment in which his administration must operate after the New
Year. And for President Barack Obama, 2010 is going to be a challenging
year indeed.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
18 Dec 2009 |
World Politics Review
In discussing my proposal last week for 21st century spheres of influence in Central Asia, a
colleague suggested that it was an idea that Otto von Bismarck would
have been proud of. They didn't mean it as a compliment. But it is time to reconsider the value of Bismarck as a guide for policymaking in the contemporary world.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
11 Dec 2009 |
World Politics Review
Looking back to how the fabled "Great Game" between
Britain and Russia was settled at the beginning of the
20th century could offer the outlines of a final settlement in Afghanistan. If success there requires acknowledging the interests of the
various players, while getting them to harmonize their behavior with
U.S. objectives, could Washington support such an approach?
By Nikolas Gvosdev
04 Dec 2009 |
World Politics Review
The president and his national security team have outlined an
ambitious strategy for Afghanistan. But if they hope to meet their July
2011 target date for the beginning of a U.S. drawdown, they will have
to navigate some unavoidable roadblocks along the way. Principal among them are the tension between Kabul and its recalcitrant regions, and the rivalry between Pakistan and India.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
27 Nov 2009 |
World Politics Review
On a host of international accords, President Barack Obama has two choices. He can make a clear-cut case for why
American interests are best served by moving forward with these
agreements -- even if specific U.S. sectors, regions or interests might be
negatively impacted. Or he can continue to promise with one hand and delay with the other, out
of reluctance to spend political capital on the Hill.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
24 Nov 2009 |
World Politics Review
In the euphoria that followed the fall of the Berlin Wall, we forget
that prior to 1989, the division of Europe into two blocs, East and
West, was seen as a permanent feature of the international order. America's
own security architecture throughout the Pacific Ocean basin may now be
based on similarly impermanent divisions in Asia.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
20 Nov 2009 |
World Politics Review
During his trip to Asia, President Barack Obama laid out a grand vision for a U.S.-China partnership, working together to solve the world's most pressing issues. It sounds like a form of co-dominion, with two global powers sharing the burdens of maintaining the international
order. There's just one small problem: That's not what the U.S. is offering.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
05 May 2009 |
World Politics Review
The first steps of Barack Obama's presidency have given him and his team some breathing room, instituting
a "zone of separation" from the policies and approaches of their
predecessors. This should not be dismissed out of hand. But so far, what Obama largely has done is to make
promises -- ones that have been well-received, for the most part,
but not yet implemented.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
10 Nov 2008 |
World Politics Review
How is President-elect Barack Obama planning to shape the foreign
policy of his administration? Is he a Wilsonian idealist? A progressive
realist? Some mix of the two? The answer remains somewhat of a mystery. He may be tempted to follow the long line of Democratic presidents who have articulated a highly
idealistic view of what America should accomplish around the globe. What remains to be seen is how comfortable the Obama
administration will be with "80 percent solutions," where some key
objectives are met and others are not.